On the back of a major sell-off in crypto markets that continue to harm the largest cryptocurrency, the chances of bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2021 have shrunk.
According to a Financial News analysis of betting odds from Unikrn, Bitcoin's chances of breaking $100,000 this year have dropped to 16.7% as of 10:30 a.m. BST on May 19. This contrasts with a 20 percent flat rate during the previous two weeks when bitcoin's most optimistic future remained basically constant.
Bitcoin's price has dropped by as much as 30% in the last 24 hours, falling below the $35,000 mark to a 24-hour low of $30,201 at roughly 2 pm BST on May 19th.
Several cryptocurrency exchanges, including Coinbase and Binance, experienced substantial disruptions during peak trading periods. Bitcoin's drop means it's back to where it was before a significant boost from Tesla in February, when the automaker said it had purchased $1.5 billion worth of tokens for its corporate treasury.
Other cryptocurrencies were hit hard by the sell-off, with ether falling 30% and bitcoin cash, stellar, EOS, and litecoin falling more than 40%.
“This price drop has also been a few weeks in the making,” said Simon Peters, a cryptoasset analyst at eToro, earlier in the day, citing momentum signs that had already shown a correction “was on the cards” from a technical standpoint.
“The main takeaway, however, is that all markets experience ups and downs. Cryptocurrency is a new and volatile asset class that has yet to be put to the test in an inflationary environment. As a result, investors must remember the fundamentals and avoid making decisions solely on the basis of price.”
Meanwhile, the likelihood of bitcoin going below $10,000 this year has stayed steady since dipping to 21% on May 13th. According to Unikrn's new market, bitcoin's chances of closing the year above $50,000 were average, at 52 percent.
“Most people who talk about crypto with such religious zeal simply have no idea about investing.”
Separate markets for Tesla CEO Elon Musk's new favorite cryptocurrency dogecoin indicated the meme token's chances of finishing the year above $5 are sliding lower, decreasing to 28.6 percent on May 19 from 29 percent the week before.
During the overall sell-off, Dogecoin was not immune, plummeting 16 percent in the last 24 hours.
According to data from Coinshares, the only digital asset outflows in the seven days leading up to May 17 were from bitcoin products, which totaled $98 million, or 0.2 percent of the assets under management. Despite its modest size, it was the largest outflow since Coinshares began tracking the data in early 2019.
“This idea of investing as pure speculation is going to fade away, and I think that's a good thing,” said Barry Norris of Argonaut Capital, a crypto skeptic who recently earned a 50% profit shorting prominent bitcoin-exposed stock MicroStrategy.
“Most people who talk about cryptocurrency with such religious zeal have no idea about investing... Too many people approach investing with a Jack and the Beanstalk mentality, trading in the family cow for some magic beans and seeing where it takes them.”
