The rumors about Apple making its own EV surfaced last week after a report from Reuters about production possibly starting by 2024. Sources have reported that Apple has a breakthrough monocell battery in the works and more. However, reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says the market is “too bullish about Apple Car” and 2025 would be the very earliest we could see the vehicle launch and realistically, 2028 or later is possible.

Kuo mentions three main issues with Apple Car: uncertainty about the launch timing, uncertainty about the supplier and vehicle specs, and uncertainty around Apple’s competitiveness in the EV and self-driving car market.

The note from Kuo clearly states that he previously predicted that Apple Car could have launched in 2023-2025 but his latest research shows that it can be pushed further back, maybe even significantly. The latest survey done by Kuo indicates that even if R&D gets going this year and everything “goes well” a launch could happen between 2025-2027. However, based on Apple’s standards, given the fast-moving changes in the EV and self-driving car market, Kuo “would not be surprised” if Apple Car doesn’t arrive until “2028 or later.”