Ramadan is a quiet affair in Yemen this year. “People are very afraid,” said Ahmed, an aid worker in the Houthi rebel-controlled capital, Sana’a, who asked for his last name to be withheld. “There’s no money, there’s no healthcare and now you can’t even celebrate iftar with family because of the coronavirus.”

Yemen, where five years of war have already created the worst humanitarian crisis in the world, is uniquely vulnerable to the coronavirus pandemic. Despite a unilateral ceasefire announced by Saudi Arabia last month, there has been an uptick in fighting between the Houthis and the Saudi and Emirati-led coalition fighting on behalf of Yemen’s government, as well as renewed hostilities between the coalition and separatist forces in the country’s south.

The fresh violence, combined with humanitarian funding shortfalls and cuts, means Covid-19 could not have arrived at a worse time.

The latest World Health Organization (WHO) predictions estimate that even if the pandemic response is well-managed, at least 42,000 Yemenis will succumb to the virus. A worst-case scenario could see 93% of the around 30-million-strong population infected.

While government areas have only reported 65 confirmed cases so far, and the Houthis in Sana’a have only announced two cases, aid workers told the Guardian at least 70 cases have already been identified in rebel-controlled territory.

In the southern city of Aden, which Yemen’s national coronavirus committee has declared is “infested” with the disease, unofficial reports say at least one doctor has died and three more are ill. Some private hospitals have closed their doors to patients, afraid their staff will become infected.

Since April the rainy season has also brought widespread flooding and a rise in cholera cases – 110,000 so far. The recent implosion of Lebanon’s financial sector, where Yemeni banks have long kept dollar reserves, has also severely affected the flow of vital imports.

“A time like this is not the right time [for the international community] to cut aid programs and funding,” said a Yemeni aid worker who asked not to be identified to keep their organization’s work safe. “If they’re trying to pressure the Houthis, it won’t work. They have already shown they’re not going anywhere. Ordinary people are the ones suffering.”

Some donors, including the US, cut funding to UN programs in Yemen earlier this year after consistent attempts by the Houthis to consolidate control over the management and distribution of resources: aid agencies report lengthy permit delays, as well as harassment and detention of staff.

In a country where 80% of the population relies on aid, the cuts are already being felt – and their effect could be irreversible. The World Food Programme (WFP), for example, feeds 9.6 million Yemenis in Houthi areas but has already had to halve food deliveries to every other month, which could easily push 10 million people already living on the brink of starvation into a full-blown famine.

Half of Yemen’s medical facilities are currently out of action, the majority because of coalition bombing facilitated by US and UK arms sales and technical support. At existing facilities, the WHO has had to top up healthcare workers’ salaries for years, but even that lifeline was cut last week in the wake of a £122m funding shortfall.

The UN’s Population Fund (UNFPA) also says that only 41% of its 2020 funding appeal has been met. If funds are not found by next week, 140 reproductive health centers will be forced to close, putting 48,000 pregnant women at risk of death from obstetric complications.

Operating under the assumption there is now widespread transmission of coronavirus in Yemen, the WHO temporarily ordered a pause in staff activity on Saturday. More NGOs are likely to follow suit in order to keep their staff safe.