China and Ukraine threaten Asia's economic growth

The Asian Development Bank has slashed its economic forecasts for Asia, citing deteriorating conditions due to China’s “zero COVID” lockdowns, rising interest rates and the war in Ukraine [File: Cheryl Ravelo /Reuters]

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has reduced its economic estimates for Asia, citing China's "zero COVID" lockdowns, rising interest rates in industrialized nations, and the conflict in Ukraine.

Asia's rising countries, including China and India, are projected to expand by 4.6% in 2022 and 5.2% in 2023, according to the ABD's most recent economic forecast released on Thursday.

The ADB anticipated in April that the region's developing bloc would expand by 5.2% and 5.3%, respectively.

As a result of "disruption from new COVID-19 lockdowns" and "weaker global demand," it is now anticipated that China's economy will grow by 4% instead of 5%.

Authorities in the world's second-largest economy continue implementing lockdowns and travel restrictions as part of a "dynamic zero COVID" policy designed to eradicate the virus.

This year, India's GDP is projected to expand by 7.2 percent, down from April's 7.5 percent growth. However, growth is expected to rebound to 7.8 percent in 2023.

In defiance of the negative trend, the growth estimate for Pacific island states was revised up to 4.7% from 3.9% due to a stronger-than-anticipated revival in Fiji's tourism industry.

"The economic impact of the pandemic has diminished across the majority of Asia, but we are still a long way from a complete and sustainable recovery," said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park.

On top of the slowdown in the PRC, the aftermath of the war in Ukraine has contributed to inflationary pressure, which is leading central banks around the world to increase interest rates, so acting as a growth brake. It is imperative to address all these global uncertainties, which threaten the region's economic recovery."

Inflation is anticipated to worsen in emerging Asia during the next two years, despite the region having less severe pricing pressures than other regions of the world.

Inflation is projected to reach 4,2 percent in 2022 and 3.5 percent in 2023, up from previous projections of 3.7% and 3.1%, respectively.

The ADB's pessimistic assessment is the most recent warning for the global economy. China's economic slowdown, interest rate hikes in Western economies, and the Ukraine conflict fuel worries of a worldwide economic recession.

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund announced that it would "substantially" decrease its estimate for the world economy in its next update, having already reduced its growth forecast for 2022 from 4.4% to 3.6% to account for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Publish : 2022-07-21 09:58:00

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