Japan's ruling party will elect a new leader. The projected future prime minister faces immediate challenges such as dealing with a pandemic-ravaged economy and maintaining a strong alliance with the United States despite mounting regional security threats.
Outgoing Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga enraged the public with handling the coronavirus outbreak and insisted on holding the Olympics in Tokyo this past summer. The new leader will have to change the party's high-handed attitude.
Observers think the long-ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party needs to quickly turn around its dwindling popular support ahead of lower house elections in two months.
Only LDP MPs and grassroots members will vote on Wednesday afternoon, and the results will be known within hours.
Because the LDP controls parliament, whoever wins the election will become Prime Minister.
The vaccinations minister Taro Kono and former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida are the front-runners, but two women — ultra-conservative Sanae Takaichi and liberal-leaning Seiko Noda — are also in the running.
'In crucial regions, little change is expected.'
Takaichi has grown to a solid third-place contender after receiving critical support from Suga's predecessor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose conservative worldview and revisionist position she shares.
Kono, who is known as a reformer and a maverick, believes that nuclear energy should be phased out eventually. In contrast, Kishida advocates for growth and distribution under his "new capitalism," claiming that Abe's economic policies favored only giant corporations.
Takaichi, the most hawkish, has promised to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which advocates for increased military capabilities and spending. Noda is a strong advocate for women's rights and diversity.
According to Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo, fundamental diplomatic and security policies are unlikely to alter under the incoming administration.
To counter China's expanding influence, all of the contenders advocate close security connections between Japan and the United States and alliances with other like-minded democracies in Asia and Europe.
'Leadership with a revolving door.'
Analysts believe Suga's support dwindled due to party complacency and Abe's increasingly authoritarian leadership style.
The vote on Wednesday will be a litmus test for the party's ability to emerge from Abe's shadow. Experts claim that his dominance in government and party affairs has effectively muzzled varied viewpoints and pushed the party to the right.
The party vote could also signal the end of a period of extraordinary political stability in Japan, ushering in a new age of "revolving door" governance.
"The issue is not about individuals, but about the stability of Japanese politics," says the author. "At a telephone briefing on Tuesday, Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.
"It's about whether we're entering a period of instability and short-term prime ministership in Japanese politics," he said. "It makes progress on the agenda extremely difficult."
Kono is popular with the public, but he lacks the support of the party's conservative heavyweights, leading to a short-term premiership. In contrast, Kishida is considered as a longer-term option.
Suga is stepping down barely a year after taking over as a fill-in for Abe, who abruptly resigned due to health issues, ending his almost eight-year presidency, the longest in Japanese constitutional history.
