According to three sources familiar with the program, China's C919 airliner, a no-show at the country's major air show this week, has found it more challenging to reach certification and manufacturing targets due to tight U.S. export rules.
According to those persons, the state-owned manufacturer, Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (COMAC), has been unable to obtain timely assistance from suppliers and has run out of some replacement parts.
As of December 2020, any company with ties to the Chinese military will need special permissions to export parts and technical support. This has thrown a spanner in the works for the C919 program, which has been under development for 13 years, making it one of the longest in aviation history.
According to the persons, who asked not to be identified due to the subject's sensitivity, U.S.-linked suppliers are progressively acquiring the licenses. Still, the snafu has hampered Chinese certification, and months-long delays threaten to postpone early manufacturing.
Only China Eastern Airlines has placed a firm order for five planes, despite COMAC having 815 preliminary charges.
In August, the state-owned carrier said it expected to get its first C919 by the end of the year, followed by two more in 2022 and two more in 2023.
Because of the delayed production ramp-up, the C919 will not represent a danger to Airbus and Boeing, which build dozens of narrowbody planes per month.
"The supply chain will be one of the biggest challenges, especially now with inflation, material availability, and supplier changes," said aerospace supply chain specialist Alex Krutz of Patriot Industrial Partners in the United States.
"Suppliers may not have the liquidity to make post-certification changes, or they may not be as willing as they were a few years ago to continue supporting an initial lower-rate production program like COMAC," he added.
COMAC is years behind schedule with its initial certification, which is one of the reasons the C919 was not shown at the China Airshow.
"COMAC is very focused on test flights right now. They're behind schedule and flying as much as they can to meet the Chinese certification requirements," a source in the industry told Reuters. "Despite the challenges, COMAC is adamant about getting certified, as it is a critical political task."
The C919 is expected to acquire its type certificate from China's aviation regulator by year-end. Still, there will be a long list of restrictions on flight operations, according to sources. COMAC will need to upgrade even after certification, according to the authorities.
Requests for comment from COMAC and the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) were not returned.
AN EXTREMELY CAREFUL REGULATOR
According to individuals familiar with the C919 program, the plane's progress appears to be following the certification pattern and delayed manufacturing of its predecessor, the ARJ21 regional aircraft.
Between receiving a "type certificate," which declares the design safe, and a "production certificate," which allows it to enter mass production, the ARJ21 faced a 2.5-year wait.
In the West, on the other hand, those certificates are usually issued at the same time.
According to COMAC data, about 60 ARJ21 aircraft have been delivered to date, but the production ramp-up gradually increased from two planes in 2017 to 24 in 2020.
The C919 is in a phase known as "batch production," Each plane must be approved by the regulator.
PARTS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES
The C919 was built in China, although it uses many Western parts, such as engines and avionics. As a result, it has been subject to restrictions on essential technology transfers.
In December 2020, two significant COMAC subsidiaries were added to a list of corporations having military ties, resulting in bureaucratic licensing requirements.
The Chinese government has been doubling down on creating its engine for the C919; state engine builder Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) will present a mockup of the CJ-1000 engine at the air show, but a domestic solution for the airliner is still years away.
According to local media, AECC is spending 10 billion yuan ($1.55 billion) to establish an industrial complex in Chengdu, southwestern China, to produce engine nacelles and thrust reversers. According to a source familiar with the situation, the facility is tied to CJ-1000 manufacture.
According to the reports, nacelle capacity is planned to reach 100 per year, enough for 50 planes, though no target date was given. A request for comment from AECC was not immediately returned.
