Opinion polls are a useful guide to the political mood, but opinion is all they capture. Real votes cast in ballot boxes provide a different quality of information. For election nerds, 2020 was a data drought, but rains are coming.

On 6 May a slew of ballots deferred because of the pandemic will be held alongside the scheduled 2021 batch. Every voter in England, Scotland and Wales is invited to a polling station, although the contests are not of equal consequence. Nicola Sturgeon’s position at Holyrood matters more than Tory control of Solihull. In parts of England, only the local police and crime commissioner post is up for grabs.

There is also a byelection for the parliamentary seat of Hartlepool. Already that contest is attracting disproportionate media interest. The result will probably be the subject of more Westminster commentary than the distribution of seats in the Cardiff Senedd. There is familiar Westminster folklore attached: the apocryphal tale of Peter Mandelson, former MP for the seat, mistaking mushy peas for guacamole. There are no funny avocado-related pegs on which to hang the Welsh parliament, just the banal fact of it being the seat of government for a devolved nation of 3.1 million people