Myanmar's special envoy to the United Nations warned on Wednesday that the country is on the brink of civil war on an "unprecedented scale," urging the United Nations Security Council to take "potentially meaningful action" to reverse the military coup on Feb. 1 and restore democracy.
Christine Schraner Burgener didn't say which acts she thought were important, but she painted a grim image of the military crackdown, telling the council in a closed session that Myanmar was on the verge of becoming a failed state.
“This could happen on our watch,” she said in a virtual presentation obtained by The Associated Press, “and failing to prevent further escalation of atrocities would cost the world so much more in the long run than investing now in prevention, especially by Myanmar's neighbors and the wider region.”
Schraner Burgener urged the council to “consider all available means to take joint action” and “prevent a multidimensional disaster in the heart of Asia,” as the people of Myanmar deserve.
A planned press release from the council was not released after the meeting because China, Myanmar's close neighbor, needed more time to consider its contents, which would most likely be until Thursday, according to several council diplomats who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the meeting was closed.
In remarks circulated by China's United Nations Mission, Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jun warned the council that "one-sided pressure and calling for sanctions or other punitive steps will only escalate conflict and dispute and further complicate the situation, which is by no means constructive."
He urged both parties to reach an agreement via mediation that de-escalates the situation while continuing to “advance the democratic transition in Myanmar,” warning that if the nation enters “prolonged turbulence, it will be a catastrophe for Myanmar and the region as a whole.”
The coup put an end to years of slow progress toward democracy in Myanmar, which had been under strict military rule for five decades, leading to international isolation and sanctions. The international community responded by lifting most sanctions and pouring money into the country as the generals' grasp loosened, resulting in Aung San Suu Kyi's election to the presidency in 2015.
Schraner Burgener spoke out against the killing and arrest of unarmed demonstrators trying to restore democracy during the virtual conference. She cited statistics from Myanmar's Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, which showed that since the coup, 2,729 people had been detained, convicted, or imprisoned, with an estimated 536 killed.
On March 10, the Security Council adopted a presidential declaration — one step below a resolution — calling for an end to the coup, firmly condemning the brutality against peaceful demonstrators, and urging the military to exercise "utmost restraint." It emphasized the importance of upholding "democratic institutions and procedures" and requested the immediate release of imprisoned government leaders such as Suu Kyi and President Win Myint.
The declaration is weaker than the UK's initial draft, which would have condemned the coup and threatened "possible action under the United Nations Charter," which is UN jargon for sanctions, "should the situation deteriorate further."
Schraner Burgener told council members that she is concerned that serious international crimes and breaches of international law committed by the military will “become bloodier as the commander-in-chief seems determined to solidify his unconstitutional hold on power by force.”
“Dialogue is needed for mediation, but Myanmar's military has closed its doors to the majority of the world,” she said during the virtual meeting. “It seems that the military will only intervene if they believe they can control the situation with coercion and terror.”
“A bloodbath is inevitable if we wait until they are able to talk,” Schraner Burgener said.
The UN envoy urged those with links to Myanmar's military, known as the Tatmadaw, to warn them of the harm to the country's image and the danger it poses not only to its people but also to the protection of its neighbors.
“A strong international response necessitates a united regional stance, particularly with neighboring countries using their clout to promote stability in Myanmar,” Schraner Burgener said, adding that she plans to visit the area next week.
According to Schraner Burgener, escalated fighting in Kayin State has caused thousands of people to flee to Thailand, and fighting in Kachin State with the Kachin Independence Army near the Chinese border has reached “its highest point this year.”
Armed ethnic groups on Myanmar's eastern and western borders are also steadily protesting "military violence," she said.
Ethnic armed groups' opposition to "military cruelty" is "increasing the risk of civil war on an unprecedented scale," Schraner Burgener warned.
“Vulnerable communities in need of humanitarian assistance, such as ethnic minorities and the Rohingya people, will suffer the most,” she said, “but the country as a whole is on the verge of failing.”
Democratically elected members of Myanmar's National Assembly, known as the CRPH committee, wrote to Guterres and Britain's UN ambassador on Wednesday, urging the Security Council to implement "robust, targeted sanctions that freeze the assets of not only military officials but also military enterprises and the junta's main sources of revenue, such as oil and gas."
CRPH also urged the UN Security Council to place an arms embargo on the military, render humanitarian aid more available, including cross-border aid, refer Myanmar's situation to the International Criminal Court "to investigate and prosecute atrocity crimes perpetrated by the military, including genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity," and consider if Myanmar's peasants should be covered.
Following the conference, British Ambassador Barbara Woodward said that “we would continue to negotiate next steps with other council members” to prevent the military from “perpetuating this crisis.”
“We want to consider all options available to us,” she said, including sanctions.
Before the council meeting, US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told reporters that if the military does not return to their barracks and continues to target civilians, "we can't just stand back and allow this to happen."
“Then we have to figure out how we can do more,” she said.
Dmitry Polyansky, Russia's deputy U.N. ambassador, told reporters Tuesday that all council members want the violence to end and dialogue and national unity to be restored. He did, however, accuse some countries and media outlets of "inciting the demonstrators to continue their demonstrations," which he said amounted to interfering in Myanmar's internal affairs.
“We shouldn't overstep this very fine line between seeking to support and intervening in the internal affairs of sovereignty,” Polyansky said, adding that “Russia is not a major fan of sanctions” and “punitive measures.”