On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden are due to hold a video conversation to address the escalating tensions in Ukraine. The West is concerned about the massing of Russian soldiers along the Ukrainian border and warns that tensions could escalate into a major war.
Since the coronavirus pandemic began, video calls have become the new normal. They remain, however, a rarity for Russian and US leaders. For weeks, Russian officials have been exciting the anticipated swap in various reports and pronouncements.
Indeed, expectations are strong — although a personal encounter between Putin and Biden is not scheduled until early 2022.
Putin using army movements to his advantage?
The meeting between the two leaders has been scheduled for months. Both presidents had agreed in Geneva to revisit agreements achieved on strategic stability and cybersecurity. However, these will almost certainly be overshadowed in Tuesday's call by the armed crisis in Ukraine.
President Putin gathered soldiers on Ukraine's border in the spring, just as he is doing today, preparing for talks with Biden.
"It's a very concerning situation and very dangerous," former US ambassador Rose Gottemoeller, a top disarmament and Russia specialist, tells DW. "Regardless of what Putin intends, the possibility of an accident or incident escalating into a hot crisis is very real."
Gottemoeller, who previously served as NATO's deputy secretary-general and now teaches at Stanford University, maintains that "Biden has the upper hand in many ways here." Putin is adamant about meeting with Biden."
According to Andrey Kortunov, president of the Moscow-based Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), "Tensions involving Ukraine raise Russia's profile with regard to US foreign policy, which is currently more occupied with China."
While there is an improvement in "willingness to engage in dialogue," he notes that there is still "no guarantee a favorable outcome will result from talks between Putin and Biden."
Putin is considering putting an end to NATO expansion.
What, therefore, is Putin's objective? According to Kortunov, Russia is pursuing a "containment strategy with regard to the West and Ukraine," toward the West and Ukraine. He adds that troops concentrated along Ukraine's border are meant to discourage Kyiv from retaking separatist-controlled territory with armed force. Previously, Kyiv rejected such ambitions.
Kortunov asserts that Putin views Western military assistance to Ukraine — including arms delivery and joint drills — crossing a red line. "But it's not entirely clear where exactly that line is," he continues.
Surprisingly, Putin brought up a new subject for discussion with Biden in November: negotiating "long-term security guarantees" with the West.
He clarified this a few days ago. Putin desires "legal guarantees" against further NATO eastward expansion. The message was meant at Ukraine and Georgia, both of which are pursuing membership in the Western military alliance and were assured in 2008 that they would eventually join — albeit without a concrete timeline.
"NATO membership for Ukraine is certainly a red line for Russia's current leadership," Kortunov adds.
On the other hand, President Biden has made it abundantly clear that he will not accept ultimatums from anyone.
"For the United States and for the NATO alliance, Ukraine is an independent and sovereign country," Rose Gottemoeller tells DW, adding that it is this very sovereignty that the US and NATO will protect.
Putin, she argues, is "replaying history" and striving to undo the Soviet Union's disintegration.
"I do believe that he is trying to rewind the tape — and I hope that it doesn't lead to violence."
Since Geneva, progress has been made.
US-Russian relations appeared to be improving until Ukraine became Russia's primary foreign policy priority. In early November, Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov applauded several "positive" events in Washington, including the extension of the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) and the Geneva meeting.
In terms of checks on nuclear weapons — colloquially referred to as strategic stability — Gottemoeller notes that only institutional progress has been made. "One (working group) is devoted exclusively to building the groundwork for new discussions to replace the current START Treaty, which is a critical first step.
According to Gottemoeller, in the other working group, "The Russians agreed with the Americans that new technologies will be discussed and their possibly destabilizing impact on the strategic stability balance." This is about advanced weapons, such as hypersonic missiles, Russia has already deployed.
Gottemoeller emphasizes Biden's commitment to cybersecurity. "It's one of the key issues that he wanted to take a check on after six months, following the Geneva summit."
However, little progress has been made in this area. Nonetheless, a working group and a United Nations initiative have been established.
Meanwhile, Kortunov asserts that Russia would neither admit to previous cyberattacks nor accept responsibility for future assaults. He notes that Washington has previously blamed Russia for such situations, but the Kremlin has consistently denied any wrongdoing. Additionally, Moscow will refrain from making unilateral pledges due to Russia's accusation of Washington of conducting cyber assaults.
Relationships to thaw?
However, one thing is unusual. Biden will speak with Putin first, and then with the numerous heads of state and government, he invited to his Democracy Summit, which will focus on "defending against authoritarianism." among other things.
In June, President Biden met with Putin after conferring with his allies at the G7 and NATO summits.
As many have described, Gottemoeller remains suspicious about a "moderate thaw" in US-Russia relations.
Rather than that, she asserts, ties remain unpredictable — even though both parties are attempting to make progress and strike a balance to avoid open conflict.
