The US is warning European Union partners that Russia may be considering an invasion of Ukraine as tensions between Moscow and the group over migration and energy supplies continue to escalate.
According to various people familiar with the situation, Washington closely monitors a buildup of Russian soldiers along the Ukrainian border. It has briefed EU counterparts on its concerns about a future military operation.
According to the sources, the evaluations are likely to be based on intelligence that the US has not yet shared with European governments, which would have to occur before any decision on a collective response could be made. According to sources familiar with the administration's reasoning, they are backed up by publicly accessible facts.
Russia maintains that military deployments on its territory are an internal affair and rejects any aggressive intent while accusing the US of provocation this week by sailing warships near its part in the Black Sea.
Similar tensions arose when the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization accused Russia of massing up to 100,000 troops, tanks, and bombers near the Ukraine border.
After US Vice President Joe Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin, the tension subsided, and he proposed a June conference.
Officials at the White House did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Putin and Merkel exchange words
Russia's new troop and tank deployment against Ukraine prompted CIA Director Bill Burns to travel to Moscow this month, where he spoke with Putin via phone. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also urged Putin in a Wednesday phone chat to use his influence with Belarus to defuse a problem with thousands of Middle Eastern migrants attempting to enter the EU via the Poland-Poland border. Putin politely declined.
Merkel and Putin discussed Ukraine and Belarus once more on Thursday, the Kremlin said in a statement. According to the report, the Russian leader criticized Ukraine's purported use of combat drones in breach of a previous agreement and American military action in the Black Sea.
The US warning on Ukraine comes on the heels of Poland's recent standoff with Belarus. And it is unfolding amid uncertainty over Russian gas supplies to Europe, despite Putin's commitment this week to increase exports to alleviate an energy crisis. He is pleading with European regulators to expedite approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, a project opposed by the US and Ukraine due to security concerns.
Russia has no intention of starting a conflict with Ukraine at the moment, but Moscow should demonstrate its readiness to use force if required, a Kremlin source said. Although an offensive was improbable due to public opposition in Kyiv and other places, another official claimed there was a strategy to respond to Ukraine's provocations.
With the West preparing new penalties against Belarus over what it views as a fabricated migration crisis, President Alexander Lukashenko has threatened to shut down a critical pipeline connecting Russia to the EU if Poland closes its border. "I would advise Poland's leadership, Lithuanians, and other empty-headed individuals to pause before speaking," he stated.
US Vice President Kamala Harris and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke extensively about Ukraine at Wednesday's talks in Paris, a US official said. Belarus, the official stated, is a part of the same security context.
Russia refutes allegations
Two senior US officials asserted that Russia manipulated the migrant issue between Belarus and Poland and the Baltic States to destabilize the region.
Another senior US official said that US suspicions about Russian objectives are based on accumulating data and trends that recall the run-up to Putin's 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.
Russian officials have denied the charges.
"Russia has nothing to do with the situation on the Belarusian-Polish border," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated.
While the US and Russian general staff maintain frequent contact, Peskov stressed that American navy vessels near Russia's the Black Sea were "absolutely" concerning to Putin.
According to one of the people familiar with the matter, the intelligence offered by US officials on Russia during recent discussions in Brussels was alarming. Another individual emphasized that there was no way to determine Moscow's simple objectives or what or when it might do next.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba appeared to indicate during Wednesday's meeting in Washington with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the US had shared at least some new information with him.
"What we heard and saw today in Washington, DC, confirms our own findings and analysis and adds some new elements that enable us to obtain a more complete picture," Kuleba said during a joint news conference with Blinken.
Ukraine and Russia have been at odds since Putin seized Crimea in response to the 2014 Ukrainian revolution that deposed the pro-Moscow president. Russia has also backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, where a battle has claimed over 13,000 lives.
According to the intelligence firm Janes, Russia's current deployment has been secret, frequently occurring at night and involving elite ground forces, in contrast to the spring's fairly open buildup.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, was also in Washington on Wednesday and stated that she and Biden discussed Ukraine and their unwavering support for its territorial integrity.
Ukraine has stated its desire to join the EU and NATO, much to the chagrin of Moscow.
