On October 25, 2018, over 50,000 military personnel braved the cold Scandinavian weather to kick off Operation Trident Juncture, a massive exercise simulating a defense of Norway against land and amphibious invasion, and the largest North Atlantic Treaty Organization exercise since the end of the Cold War, according to some accounts.
All twenty-nine NATO member states are sending sailors, soldiers, and airmen, as well as Finnish and Swedish forces, 250 military aircraft, and 65 ships. If the ten thousand land vehicles offloaded into Norway—which range from Leopard 2 tanks to Amphibious Assault Vehicles to conventional trucks—were lined up bumper to bumper, they would stretch for fifty-seven miles.
The previous edition of the exercise, in 2015, took place in the much warmer temperatures of Spain and Portugal. Now, NATO is putting its logistical capacity to move tens of thousands of troops to its northernmost member to the test, demonstrating to Moscow that it is prepared to hit back against military shows around its borders.
When Nazi Germany defeated Norwegian defenders and the French, British, and Polish forces despatched to relieve them, Norway last experienced an amphibious assault seventy-eight years ago. The Kriegsmarine, on the other hand, lost nearly half of its surface warships in the conflict. Norway's national-security plan now includes a concept of "total defense," in which civilian authorities are expected to play an important role in the war effort by supplying logistics, supplies, and medical services.
The Russian Northern Fleet's access to the Atlantic Ocean from its base in Severomorsk is overshadowed by Norway's 120-mile-long land border with Russia, as well as the surrounding Arctic coastline. Russian supersonic aircraft conducted mock attack runs against Norway's Globus 2 radar in Vard in early 2017, followed by simulated strikes against adjacent NATO vessels and a Norwegian facility in Bod in May. Then, during the Zapad military drill, Moscow stationed a nuclear-capable Iskander tactical ballistic missile system near Norway's border.
The 5.3 million-strong country has only one combined-arms brigade and two battalion-sized garrison units (albeit it has combat experience in Afghanistan). Norway's air and maritime forces are more powerful, with roughly 70 F-16 and F-35 stealth fighters and seventeen frigates, missile boats, and submarines in their navy. As a result, the Trident Juncture serves as a deterrent by demonstrating that if Norway invokes Article 5 in response to an assault, its NATO partners are ready and able to respond quickly.
Russia has already expressed dissatisfaction with the exercise, stating that Norway's hosting of foreign troops violates "good neighborly traditions." “Irresponsible actions will inevitably destabilize the military and political situation in the north, increase tensions, and undermine the fabric of Russian-Norwegian relations,” said Kremlin spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, adding that Russia would respond with “necessary ‘tit-for-tat' measures.” Nonetheless, Moscow has accepted NATO's request to participate in the exercises as observers.
Sweden and Finland are also key participants. Swedish forces have fought Russian submarines and aircraft in and over the Baltic Sea since the Cold War, but Stockholm has long refused to formally join NATO. Helsinki's neutrality is even more guarded. However, Moscow's recent increase in aggressive submarine and bomber operations has prompted both countries to strengthen their defenses and come closer to the US-led alliance. 2,200 Swedish and 2,400 Finnish troops, for example, are taking part.
Forces that are taking part
The USS Harry S. Truman, a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered supercarrier, is contributing fourteen thousand personnel to Trident Juncture, including the carrier's escorts, the Carrier Air Wing's sixty-eight Super Hornet jet fighters and helicopters, and the 24th 2Marine Expeditionary Unit, which is aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima. The naval component of the exercise is largely active in the Norwegian Sea, with some Baltic actions. Trident Juncture also includes the USS New York, advanced Swedish Visby-class stealth corvettes armed with torpedoes and anti-ship missiles, and six Royal Navy anti-submarine frigates, accounting for over a third of the UK's surface fleet.
Marines on Iwo Jima simulated an airborne assault landing utilizing MV-22B Osprey tilt-rotors and CH-53 helicopters prior to the exercise, which took place between October 15 and 17. Furthermore, Norway began hosting a 770-strong rotating battalion-sized detachment of US Marines (now the 3rd Battalion/8th Regiment). This development has been singled out for criticism by Russia. In case operational exigencies necessitate them to scale up their ranks, the Marines have hidden adequate equipment for up to fifteen thousand extra Marines in Norwegian caverns.
With ten thousand people and 200 armored vehicles, including twenty Leopard 2 tanks, Germany is the second greatest contributor to the exercise. The United Kingdom and France are sending 2,700 and 3,000 troops, respectively, while Canada is sending 2,200. Other members, such as Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain, each contribute 1,000 to 1,500 troops.
Trident Juncture's aerial component consists of 250 aircraft based in Norway and abroad. Belgian and American F-16Cs are based in Rovaniemi, Finland, while US twin-engine F-15C air-superiority fighters and seven nimble JAS-39 Gripen jets are based in Kallax, Sweden. Participants include German Tornadoes and Typhoons, Canadian and Finnish FA-18 Hornets, and French delta-wing Mirage 2000s.
The warplanes will conduct air-to-air combat as well as give ground and naval forces support. The Royal Air Force's 100 Squadron's Hawk advanced jet trainers will play the role of pretending enemy "aggressors." Meanwhile, KC-135s from the United States will provide aerial refueling, while maritime patrol planes Atlantique 2 and Aurora will rehearse searching the seas for submarines.
Trident Juncture's 20,000 ground troops are organized into opposing division-sized teams. The Northern squad will act as an invading force, with Canadian and Swedish-led Brigades, as well as Norway's lone brigade—all backed up by a U.S. Marine amphibious landing. The Southern side, which will be led by German, Italian, and British troops, will first defend before launching a counter-offensive.
Joint Forces Command Naples is in charge of the exercise, though its commander, US Adm. James Foggo, is closer to the action on the Blue Ridge-class command ship USS Mount Whitney. Following the completion of the maneuvers on November 7, the Head Quarters will participate in a Computer-Assisted Command Post Exercise from November 14 to 23 to assess the reliability of command and control systems.
The war exercise, according to NATO's public relations, is mostly a test of logistical capabilities, cold weather adaption, and international cooperation, rather than new tactics. The alliance is particularly interested in seeing how quickly it can deploy its "Very High Readiness Joint Task Force," a 5,000-strong spearhead brigade supported by land, sea, and special forces assets that can be sent anywhere in the world with just a few days' notice.
Critics argue that the Spearhead would have little chance of repelling a full-scale mechanized invasion on its own. The brigade's role, however, is mostly political. If Russia were to attack a NATO member, it would most certainly conquer thinly populated territories like the Baltics in two or three days before NATO could deploy reinforcements, creating a "fait accompli" and luring politicians away from a fight—the result of a 2016 Rand war game. The Spearhead might theoretically act as a mobile trip-wire, putting West European ‘skin in the game' quickly enough to prevent that catastrophe.
NATO hopes to be able to mobilize thirty mechanized battalions, thirty squadrons, and thirty warships in thirty days by 2020. For the time being, though, NATO planners will be content if they can safely transport tens of thousands of troops through the Nordic weather—apart from the chaos caused by having to clean the 727.5 tons of laundry that NATO logisticians estimate the exercise will generate. If the alliance can withstand that many muddy fatigues, it may be capable of protecting its northern flank.
Sébastien Roblin earned a master's degree in conflict resolution from Georgetown University and worked for the Peace Corps in China as a university instructor. In France and the United States, he has also worked in teaching, editing, and refugee resettlement. He presently contributes to War Is Boring, where he focuses on security and military history. This was originally published earlier, but owing to reader interest, it is being reprinted.
